APA and Green Communities Research Center Release Solar Briefing Papers
Over the past year, The American Planning Association, working with the International City/County Management Association (ICMA), the National Association of Regional Councils (NARC), and alongside ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability on the SunShot Solar Outreach Partnership, an initiative of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), has developed a set of briefing papers covering the following subjects.
Solar Community Engagement Strategies for Planners
Solar Mapping
Integrating Solar Energy into Local Plans
Integrating Solar Energy into Local Development Regulations
Balancing Solar Energy Use with Potential Competing Interests
Recycling Land for Solar Energy Development
Energy Law Wisconsin was privileged to be part of the team that provided input on the briefing paper “Balancing Solar Energy Use with Competing Interests” and was part of an APA webinar last fall on this topic.
The APA website has a wealth of resources on solar planning and other APA research. We encourage you to visit the website and take a look around.
Written on February 14, 2013 at 11:50 am, by Energy Law Wisconsin
Allen to Speak at Upcoming American Planning Association Webinar
On September 18, 2012, the American Planning Association (APA) will be hosting a webinar titled “Balancing Solar and Other Potential Competing Interests in Communities”. The webinar is one of the activities that the APA has undertaken as a participant in the SunShot Solar Outreach Partnership, an initiative of the United States Department of Energy.
The webinar will focus on community planning decisions when other interests compete with solar energy development. The two com
peting interests that will be addressed are tree preservation, which will be addressed by Michael Allen, and historic preservation, which will be addressed by Kim Kooles, policy analyst with the North Carolina Solar Center.
The webinar will take place from noon-1 p.m. CST on September 18, 2012. Registration for the webinar is free.
Written on September 3, 2012 at 12:53 pm, by Energy Law Wisconsin
Energy Law Supports Local Library’s Book N It Run/Walk
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On August 4, 2012 the entire Energy Law Wisconsin family joined the Sun Prairie Public Library Foundation‘s 9th annual fundraising Book N It Run/Walk. The team expended its own energy 3.2 miles for this good cause, complete with two children and an antiquated stroller. Energy Law Wisconsin has long supported the Sun Prairie Public Library, going back to the late 1990s, when Attorney Michael Allen served on the library’s Board of Trustees in the 1990s and worked on many of the Foundation’s formative legal documents. The Foundation reported its biggest turnout ever for the event, which is great news, as past proceeds have funded displays in the children’s Early Literacy area and the Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) project (immediate book check-in software). Energy Law’s youngest reader, Isaac, enjoyed meeting Sun Prairie’s mascots and shared this hug with the “Book N It Guy”. Our calendar is already marked for next year’s event, on Saturday, August 3, 2013.
Written on August 21, 2012 at 2:33 pm, by Energy Law Wisconsin
Speedskater Luke Tweddale: A Different Kind of Energy
Photo credit: Mike Bernico
With the 2012 Summer Olympics in full swing, we’d like to depart from our usual practice of profiling recent developments in the world of energy resources and focus on a different type of energy: the energy of an aspiring Olympic athlete. No one typifies this type of energy better locally than 18 year old long track speedskater Luke Tweddale
We thought it would be fascinating to gain some insight into the “personal energy” that an athlete
What motivates and inspires you to put in the long hours of work necessary to become a competitive long track speedskater at the international level? What is your ultimate goal?
Well, as far as motivation, nothing gives me more fuel to keep going than skating a great race. My motivation comes from a desire to make every race a great one, or at least make the spaces between those good races significantly shorter. My ultimate goal is to represent my country in the Olympics. I can imagine no greater honor than carrying the pride of this great nation into the Olympic Stadium alongside my teammates.
You’ve been training for a number of years now and have also had the opportunity to interact with many outstanding speedskaters, including Olympic medalists like Casey FitzRandolph and Shani Davis. Are there any particular characteristics that you have experienced or observed that are critical to becoming competitive and, equally important, to keeping balanced, through the process of training and competition?
Absolutely. There are two modern speedskaters who come to mind as shining examples of attributes I wish to have for myself. The first is Jilleanne Rookard, 2010 member of our Olympic Long Track Team. In 2009, few people outside of Milwaukee knew the extent of her abilities, and she had faced some considerable challenges to pursuing her dream.
The second skater is John Richard “JR” Celski, 2010 Short Track Olympian. JR was up against the most celebrated American short track speedskater, Apolo Anton Ohno, at the 2008 World Team Championships in Vienna, Austria. JR had just made his first senior World Team, and was very new to the arena.
With the Summer Olympics in progress, are there any athletes or teams from the 2012 U.S. squad that you find particularly inspiring?
Missy Franklin, a swimmer and world record holder, is the personification of not only a great Olympic athlete, but a great human being. From everything I’ve heard and seen, Missy seems grounded, modest, kind, and most impressively, surprisingly carefree for such a serious athlete. Add to that the fact that she’s only 17 and the only word for her is unique. The way her parents put it is that she’s a normal teenager who just happens to have a gift for swimming. That’s how I want to be, not just a skater, but someone worthy of note beyond the 17-day period of the Olympiad.
What are the lessons you’ve learned from your speedskating career to date that you think you will carry with you the rest of your life, regardless of whether you continue to skate for many years or turn your attention to something else?
One important lesson that I have learned is how to be committed to something and to see it through to the end. Every time I finish a race, even if it wasn’t a terribly good one, I can say, “I saw that race through, and I didn’t give up.” It’s a great approach to life.
Another hard lesson I’ve learned is that, since so much of life nowadays, both in professional and sporting careers, is results-oriented, if you don’t produce, you’re labeled as not very valuable or noteworthy, regardless of your other attributes. It’s easy to feel like you’re only as good as your list of achievements, but that has never been my philosophy, even when I’m pursuing a specific goal like skating a perfect 500-meter sprint. The thing is, in 15 years, no one will care that you won a medal in the National Championships or even in the Olympics. You’ll be judged on your personal attributes, which endure forever, not on your fastest times, which you can usually only skate once or twice in a relatively short period of your life.
What question would you like to be asked that you have never been asked? How would you answer it?
I’m rarely asked about the series of steps that have led up to where I am now, or the series of steps that will hopefully lead me to the Olympics in the future. I also notice that most interviewers never ask Olympians this question, probably because the answer can’t be condensed into a sound bite. The public only sees these athletes once every four years and focuses on their brief performances. However, what we see during the
Too often, I feel that athletes are only judged solely on the basis of a single performance, which you see in a vacuum during a time of extremely high stress which is not conducive to the highest performance that an athlete can achieve, and which is not indicative of that long and laborious process. Because the Olympics are so popular, it is an unavoidable fact that a lot of people, coaches, media, family, and the public put athletes under tremendous pressure to win when the whole world is watching. We devote our lives to our sports, sometimes for decades, and those long years of effort should be appreciated and recognized more.
If people are interested in learning more about and/or supporting the efforts of you and other hardworking U.S. speedskaters, where can they look to follow and/or support all of you?
There are several great ways to support us, but one thing we all appreciate is an enthusiastic crowd! Please come to the Pettit National Ice Center in Milwaukee on November 2, 3, and 4, and cheer for the top U.S. long track speedskaters during the World Cup Qualifier and American Cup 1 competition, which is usually free of charge to spectators. Better yet, put on some skates yourself! Visit the Pettit website above, or the website of your local ice arena
Energy Law Wisconsin wishes Luke the best in his future endeavors. We’ll be watching his upcoming races with interest!
Written on August 6, 2012 at 10:46 am, by Energy Law Wisconsin
Crowdfunding in the Energy Arena: A Child of Necessity
“Necessity is the Mother of Invention” – Unknown
If “Necessity is the M
other of Invention”, then crowdfunding could be considered one of Necessity’s healthy and growing offspring. Generally speaking, “crowdfunding” refers to a growing phenomenon through which people who wish to individually provide relatively modest amounts of financial support for a creative project can pool their resources and collectively raise a significant amount to permit the project to go forward. These pooled funds are used to finance the creative endeavors of artists, musicians, and inventors, among others, with projects ranging from concert tours, to independent films, to inventions and recently to renewable energy projects, such as installing solar panels on the home office of a non-profit organization.
How does Crowdfunding work? Crowdfunding comes in different varieties of business models. Some crowdfunding efforts are limited to donations in support of a project. Others involve pre-purchases of products and some involve the sale of securities to investors. This last variety of crowdfunding and persons who promote it as intermediaries will be receiving attention from the Securities and Exchange Commission in the coming months, as discussed in greater detail below.
Crowdfunding is typically accomplished over the Internet and a growing number of internet sites provide a forum for interested patrons to pool their resources in support of projects they deem worthy. One well known crowdfunding site is Kickstarter. It is important to remember, however, that not all crowdfunding sites operate by the same rules. Some require that a project seeking funding obtain its full funding target before the money is released to the project developer; others will turn over whatever is raised regardless of whether the targeted funding level is achieved.
Crowdfunding in the Energy Arena. A recent example of crowdfunding success in the energy arena is the tPOD1 developed by Tellurix. The tPOD1 is a device that converts thermal electricity from a small source, such as a tea candle, to an electric current, which is then used through a charger to repower small mobile electric devices, such as cell phones, iPods, etc. One of the possible applications of this invention would be for outdoor enthusiasts, who might need to recharge a mobile device to make an emergency phone call or send a text message. Tellurix sought to raise $85,000 via Kickstarter. It met its goal on June 22, 2012 and as of July 15, 2012, had raised $111,697.
Another forum for crowdfunding in the energy arena is the New Generation Energy website. This site limits fundraising to non-profits and allows the public to donate to “green energy projects” at nonprofits nationwide. On a recent visit to the site, I saw requests for projects that included high-efficiency lighting and HVAC equipment, solar PV systems, and a geothermal energy system.
A new company in Oakland, California, Solar Mosaic, is in the process of raising $2.5 million to fund a crowdfunding platform specifically for solar projects. Solar Mosaic’s website says that it is currently in a “quiet period” following its April 24, 2012 filing with the SEC to offer “Solar Power Notes” to investors. In response to my initial online request for more information, Solar Mosaic informed me that the initial launch of its platform will not include Wisconsin.
How might Crowdfunding be Helpful for Renewable Energy Projects in Wisconsin? Crowdfunding offers renewable energy projects developers, particularly solar projects undertaken by nonprofits, a source of funding that can be well-suited to their needs. Crowdfunding can address one of the biggest barriers to project development: the high initial capital cost of a project. Moreover, single building solar PV projects are often in the price range (10s to 100s of thousands of dollars) where crowdfunding business models and platforms may be able to help in raising funds without expenses that are disproportionately large relative to the size of the project.
Crowdfunding may turn out to be particularly helpful for Wisconsin nonprofits, who currently face daunting project development barriers in that they cannot: (a) directly take advantage of the benefits of tax credits and depreciation to assist in financing a project; and (b) indirectly take advantage of such tax benefits through leases and power purchase agreements with third parties without the third party risking being deemed as acting as a unregulated public utility.
Legal Issues with Crowdfunding. From a legal perspective, crowdfunding is a new phenomenon and is getting increasing regulatory attention, particularly where the sale of securities is involved. In the JOBS Act signed into law of April of this year, Congress amended Section 4 of the Securities Act of 1933 to create a new exemption for offerings of “crowdfunded securities”.
According to FAQs about Crowdfunding Intermediaries published by the SEC in May 2012, the exemption would apply to issuers of such securities when they offer and sell when they offer and sell up to $1 million in securities, provided that individual investments do not exceed certain thresholds and the issuer satisfies other conditions in the JOBS Act, some of which will require rulemaking by the SEC”. It is important to remember that the exemption will not be available until after the SEC has adopted rules creating the new exemption.
Crowdfunding has already had a significant impact on the entrepreneurial marketplace. A news article from May 2012 estimated that crowdfunding raised $1.2 billion globally in 2011. It is likely to receive additional attention in the future.
Early commentators are split on whether by the time the SEC issues its final crowdfunding rules, crowdfunding will remain a viable avenue to raise funds from small investors or whether it will be choked by onerous disclosure requirements and red tape. It will be interesting to see the requirements that the final SEC crowdfunding intermediary regulations establish for such intermediaries and future crowdfunding portals.
Written on July 9, 2012 at 11:50 am, by Michael Allen
Community Solar: Finding the Model That’s Right for You
An example of a community solar project: Convergence Energy Solar Farm in Walworth County, Wisconsin.
Required Formal Disclaimer: Since what follows involves some discussion of legal principles, there is at least a theoretical possibility that one of you out there may read this blog entry and conclude that: (a) you and I have entered into an attorney client relationship; or (b) I am offering you specific legal advice for your specific legal situation. In the unlikely event you reach either conclusion, I must inform you that sadly, it is not true. Persons accessing this site are encouraged to seek independent counsel for advice regarding their individual legal issues.
I have attended a number of public presentations over the past several weeks about community solar. What I have taken away from these presentations: First, there is a high degree of interest in promoting community solar in Wisconsin. Second, the legal underpinnings of community solar are not well understood by the general population. This blog post is an attempt to shed a little light on this area.
The term “Community Solar” is not a universally understood term with the same meaning in every context. Rather, it is a general expression used with different meanings at different times, like the word “green” when referring to environmental and sustainability benefits. In my own usage, the term “Community Solar” has a broad and a narrow meaning:
Broad Definition: An effort by a group of people (or community) to promote the development of solar energy through a collective effort, frequently when some or all of the members of the group lack the ability or financial resources to own and operate a solar energy system on their own property.
Used in this sense, community solar can include utility and other green power programs and renewable energy credit (REC) aggregation efforts in which individuals make contributions, municipal utility “adopt a solar panel” programs, as well as all organizational structures and models for community investment in solar that are included in the narrower definition. It could even include “crowdfunding” to support a solar project. (ELW will address crowdfunding in an upcoming blog post.)
Narrow Definition: This narrower concept means a collective effort by a group of investors (this could include equity investors and/or lenders) to develop an entity or organization to own and operate a solar energy system and make a financial return on their investment. Examples of this would include all of the following, among others:
- A group of homeowners who can’t individually afford the entire up-front cost of a solar energy system or whose roofs are too shaded to permit effective production of solar power, pool their funds to purchase interests in a limited liability company that owns a solar energy system.
- A group of tenants within a building who wish to put solar on the roof get the rights to lease the roof of the building to install a solar energy system and create a co-op in which each of them is a member, getting the use of the solar power produced by the solar energy system and furnished to the building.
- A homeowner or business owner who has most of the funds necessary to purchase a solar energy system, but needs to borrow funds that it cannot get a loan for from the bank enters into a series of loan agreements with friends or investors, each of whom will lend a portion of the money necessary to get the system owner “over the top” in financing the system. In return, the system owner guarantees them a fixed interest repayment over the loan term.
Which Type of Community Solar is the Best? This is a question that is complex and requires careful consideration of all of the following before the project is commenced:
- The regulatory scheme of your state, and, if you are in a regulated utility market, what business models are permitted without being deemed to be acting as a regulated utility.
- The buyback rate (if any) and tariffs offered by the local utility who may be the power purchaser.
- Whether the primary use of the system will be to self-serve, act as an independent power producer (selling the electricity to a utility), or to serve other third parties.
- Whether the project can be set up to take advantage of federal tax incentives, including the Investment Tax Credit and accelerated depreciation.
- The rate of return that has to be offered to investors to get them to participate and whether the business structure necessary to secure such participation requires compliance with state and federal securities laws.
While answering these questions may seem daunting, the good news is that there are a growing number of people, the author of this blog included, who are devoting their time to developing community solar business models and the supporting documents to implement them. There is also a lot of room for creativity to meet the specific needs of individuals who wish to participate in community solar. Also, there are an increasing number of resources being developed by government agencies, utilities and others to assist people in finding the resources they need to develop community solar projects.
Written on June 26, 2012 at 3:34 pm, by Michael Allen
U.S. DOE Debuts Solar 3.0 to Reduce Soft Costs of Solar PV
This spring the U.S. Department of Energy launched Solar 3.0, as part of the SunShot initiative, which initiative aims to dramatically decrease the total costs of solar energy systems by 75% before the end of the decade and make solar energy cost-competitive with conventional forms of electricity without subsidies. Solar 3.0 aims to reduce “soft costs” (i.e., non-equipment and hardware costs) of solar photovoltaic (PV) by 50% by 2014. It is designed to adapt to the needs of major U.S. cities and addresses certain community challenges that slow solar PV development, including permitting rooftop systems and training. Solar 3.0 works by promoting regulatory innovation, rather than technological innovation.
Solar 3.0 is managed by SolarTech, which is a consortium of stakeholders in the solar industry. One hundred initial cities will be targeted in S2012’s initial stage. Eligible communities will receive a resource tool kit with curriculum, metrics, and information about continuing education.
Wisconsin is one of the 2012 Target States for the Solar 3.0 program, and in fact is the only such target state in the Midwest.
How can you keep pace with the new initiative? Visit www.solar30.org to keep informed by signing up to receive e-news or follow Solar 3.0 on LinkedIn.com.
Written on June 21, 2012 at 1:15 pm, by Colleen Wenos
AWEA’s Jeff Anthony Outlines the State of Wind Power
The Wind Power Happy Hour met at Sun Prairie’s Cannery Grill on Monday, May 21. The guest speaker was Jeff Anthony, Director of Business Development for the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). Anthony noted that the wind energy industry offered terrific opportunities for Wisconsin manufacturers and showed a series of slides to illustrate his point. In particular, Anthony observed that as of 2005, only 30% of the content in wind turbines was made by U.S. manufacturers, but as of 2010, the American-made content had risen to 60% and in 2012, it is anticipated to be almost 70%.
Wisconsin has a number of successful companies in the wind turbine manufacturing supply chain, including Ingeteam in Milwaukee and Gearbox Express in Mukwonago. Even states that have poor quality wind resources, such as those located in the Southeastern United States, have significant opportunities to become manufacturing partners in the U.S. wind industry. To underscore this point, AWEA is holding its Windpower 2012 Conference & Exhibition in Atlanta, Georgia this year.
Anthony noted how closely wind development was tied to policy and currently wind dvelopers and manufacturers are sitting on their edge of their seat, wondering if Congress will renew the Production Tax Credit, which expires at the end of 2012. He showed a chart with illustrations of what had happened in past year when Congress delayed renewing the tax credit and each time this happened, there was a sharp drop-off in wind energy development the following year, due to the uncertainty in the marketplace as to whether the credit would be renewed.
Anthony noted that back-and-forth policy does not exist for the oil and gas industry or the nuclear industry. Both industries are the beneficiaries of very substantial incentives that are permanently built into tax code. In contrast, wind must ask Congress to renew its policy supporting wind from year to year, which puts it at a disadvantage to the other industries.
During the Q&A session, Anthony addressed questions about the impact that the 18 month delay in implementation of the wind siting rules might have had on Wisconsin. Mr. Anthony said that the suspension of the rules very clearly had a harmful effect on Wisconsin’s wind construction industry, as more than $1 billion of projects were cancelled or postponed during the prolonged uncertainty that followed suspension of the rules. Mr. Anthony was less certain about the impact of the rules suspension on manufacturing jobs. He said to his knowledge no plants had closed own and any manufacturing impact was more likely in the form of lost opportunities to add new plants and manufacturing jobs in Wisconsin. He also offered attention-catching figures that showed the during the time the rules were suspended, Wisconsin’s neighboring states put up roughly 50-100 times the amount of wind capacity as did Wisconsin.
Anthony was less certain about the impact of the rules suspension on manufacturing jobs. He was not aware of any plants that had closed down; he said if there was an impact, it more likely would be in the form of “lost opportunities”.
With the final wind siting rules now in place, the current challenge for Wisconsin is to regain the momentum it previously had in wind energy manufacturing and construction and once become a leader in the manufacturing of wind turbine components. Mr. Anthony put up slides illustrating the fact that there are hundreds of different components in a modern wind turbine. Many facilities in Wisconsin and other industrial states that formerly produced components for industries such as the auto industry, have been retooled to provide these components.
To conclude, Mr. Anthony addressed a question about the relationship between the natural gas industry, which is seeing record low prices, and the wind industry. Wind and natural gas are currently the lowest cost sources of energy when all costs are included and are therefore natural competitors. But, he added, wind generation facilities and natural gas generation facilities can be operated very effectively in tandem to meet energy needs, so they are also natural allies. Mr. Anthony noted that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which is a proponent of low-cost natural gas, is also a proponent of the extension of the Production Tax Credit for wind.
People who wish more about this issue can see Jeff Anthony’s slides from his presentation here: Wind Power Happy Hour Slides.
Written on May 31, 2012 at 12:34 pm, by Michael Allen
Notes from the Focus on Energy Trade Ally Expo
There has been a great deal of excitement (and controversy) in the past year over Wisconsin’s Focus on Energy program. Issues receiving attention include funding levels, allocation of resources between energy efficiency versus renewables and the processing of applications. I’d like to provide a brief report from a program I attended on May 15, 2012, the first Focus on Energy Trade Ally Expo, held at Crowne Plaza Hotel Madison in Madison, Wisconsin.
The Expo focused entirely on energy efficiency incentives, other than a quick mention that new renewable incentives for residential owners will become available on July 1, 2012. Specific bits of information I jotted down that may be of interest include the following:
TRADE ALLY BENEFITS
- Anyone who wants to be a Trade Ally must apply here even if you were previously working with Focus on Energy as a Trade Ally.
- The Focus on Energy program is in the process of creating Trade Ally working groups through which it will obtain feedback about
its programs. If you want to be part of such a group, now is the time to express interest.
- According to the Focus on Energy reps I spoke with, all investor-owned utilities, all municipal utilities, and most Wisconsin co-ops are now in the Focus on Energy program. At this point, there are only a handful of cooperatives in the northwestern corner of the state that are not participating in the program.
- Focus on Energy is offering bonuses to Trade Allies for submitting complete and accurate applications for incentives. These completion bonuses go to the trade allies, not the customers. In other words, if you complete your application accurately and fully the first time, you can get a cash bonus that is yours to keep. Until June 30, these rules governing these application bonuses will allow the applicant to correct and re-submit the application. After July 1, you must do it properly the first time around.
- Focus on Energy will have a community outreach program. Its contours are not fully defined yet, but Focus on Energy representatives will make themselves available to meet with large energy users, eligible customers (such as condominium associations) and perhaps even community groups.
INCENTIVES CATEGORIES
Within the incentives there are several categories that are noteworthy:
Chain Stores and Franchises. This program focuses on owners of retail establishments that have five or more facilities in the State of Wisconsin. The stated Focus goal is to leverage a connection with one or two key decision makers in the business that make energy efficiency decisions for multiple facilities across the state. The eventual goal is to make Wisconsin a blueprint for the entire nation in demand-side management.
Large Energy Customers.This Focus on Energy incentive program is aimed at energy-users who have an energy demand of at least 1,000 kw of electricity per month or a demand of at least 10,000 decatherms of natural gas per month or a combined electric bill of $60,000 per month in one utility’s service territory. Note: If you have a combined utility bill of $60,000 in multiple electric utility service territories, you would not qualify, but you would be eligible for the business incentives program. Typical Large Energy Customers would be pulp and paper mills, metal casters, food processors, hospitals, universities, ethanol biofuel and biomass producers, water and wastewater facilities.
Business Incentive Program. This program serves business customers that are not served by the Large Energy Users or Chain Stores and Franchises program. It includes agricultural facilities, schools and governmental buildings, small industrial users, commercial space, and independent groceries and retailers. A typical Business Incentive Program customer would have electric demand of 100-1,000 kw
per month.
Multi-Family Energy Savings Program. This program is eligible to multi-family residence owners with four units and above. It includes apartment buildings and may include condominiums. Condominiums are included if they are interested in reducing energy demand in the common areas or if four or more users gather together to make energy-efficiency improvements. If a single condo unit owner wishes to make an improvement, that unit owner would be directed to the Residential Incentives Program.
Residential Incentives Program. There are two programs available to owners of 1-3 unit homes: Home Performance With Energy Star® and Assisted Home Performance with Energy Star®. The Assisted Home Performance with Energy Star® program offers increased awards for households with income between 60-80% of the State Median Income.
FOR MORE INFORMATION
Persons who are eligible for the current categories of programs could benefit greatly. The Focus on Energy Trade Ally Expo is traveling Wisconsin in May to spread the news:
Thursday, May 17 – Rothschild
Friday, May 18 – Onalaska
Tuesday, May 22 – Brookfield
Wednesday, May 23 – Kimberly
Thursday, May 24 – Eau Claire
Also, you can find Focus on Energy at the Wisconsin Association of School Board Officials Meeting in Wisconsin Dells May 22-25 and the Midwest Renewable Energy Association Energy Fair June 15-17.
Written on May 16, 2012 at 3:53 pm, by Michael Allen
Natural Gas: Why You Should Take an Interest in Recent Developments
In recent months, natural gas has received more media attention than any time I can remember. Based upon my own research and my recent participation in the first Wisconsin Natural Gas for Transportation Roundtable, held in Madison, Wisconsin on April 25, 2012, I believe this increased attention is not only well-deserved, it may actually be insufficient.
Technology innovations have led to a fundamental change in the economics of the production of natural gas from shale deposits. This change in natural gas economics, in turn is fueling (pardon the pun) accelerating economic, regulatory and infrastructure developments whose effects will be widespread.
Some of the areas that are undergoing drastic change in the evolving world of natural gas production include:
- Natural Gas Pricing
- Renewable Energy Development
- Environmental Quality
- Energy Regulations
- Natural Gas Transport Infrastructure
These very significant changes are too much to cover in a single blog post. I will attempt, through a series of upcoming posts, to address, in bite-sized pieces, some of the critical issues. Today, I will begin with the apparently fundamental change in the in the available supply and price of natural gas in the United States.
Natural Gas Production – Then & Now
If you were to turn the clock back to 2005 and look at the headlines about natural gas production, you would find articles lamenting the natural gas crisis. The prevailing wisdom was that natural gas production in the United States had peaked and was on the decline, leaving the country facing a supply shortage that many claimed to not be going away anytime soon. For example, the Alliance to Save Energy urged Congress to adopt energy efficiency measures to deal with the crisis (See here).
The cry went out to find new sources of natural gas, with potential solutions including increasing offshore drilling in places likely to produce natural gas and importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from overseas. The importation process would require natural gas from other parts of the world to be cooled to a liquid state, brought to the United States, warmed up and put in domestic natural gas pipelines.
If you turn the clock forward to 2012, however, the headlines broadcast a crisis of another variety – a crisis of oversupply. For example, a CNBC interview with a commodities expert who ran a hedge fund that specializes in energy-related investments was titled “Who Will Survive the Natural Gas Oversupply?” The story claimed, in language that echoes the language of 2005, that the current natural gas oversupply conditions in the United States will not go away anytime soon.
Low Cost, High Supply Affects Global Economy
Headlines are one thing, but prices and actual projects under development are another. Based on the latter, it cannot be denied that the U.S. natural gas supply picture has changed radically in less than ten years. Natural gas futures contracts which reached an historic high at
$15.35/MMBTU in late 2005 are now priced at approximately $2/MMBTU. As far as projects go, the industry has gone from developing terminals designed to receive imports of LNG to seeking permits for terminals established for the purpose of exporting LNG.
Many people are convinced that the low cost, high supply scenario for natural gas is here to stay at least for many years. Their optimism is based not only on today’s numbers, but also their confidence that the U.S. is only tapping the tip of the iceberg when it comes to shale gas supply. Others, including some who have been in the utility industry for decades and have seen ups and downs in the natural gas supply, aren’t so sure. Still others believe one or more of the following factors may throw a monkey wrench into the high supply, low cost natural gas scenario:
- Environmental and liability concerns, including the environmental impact from fracking, climate change impact of higher natural gas use, and even earthquakes claimed to be caused by shale gas exploration.
- High increased demand will drive up price due to wholesale electric generation industry switching away from coal, nuclear and renewables to natural gas.
- Increased demand from China, India and the developing world will drive up the price.
- Infrastructure and transport limitations.
At this point, you may be thinking, “This is all very interesting, but I do not live on the coasts where the LNG terminals will be located, so what does any of this have to do with me?” After attending the Wisconsin Natural Gas for Transport Roundtable, I am convinced that Wisconsin will have a birds’ eye view of watching the birth of a new natural gas infrastructure, particularly for transport, and will have all the opportunities and growing pains associated with such an industry.
I’ll talk more about this and some of the impacts and risks associated with this developing industry in future posts.
Written on April 27, 2012 at 2:07 pm, by Michael Allen
